Camila’s Worldview:

https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/the-us-venezuela-relations-a-downward-spiral

Nicolás Maduro, Venezuela’s authoritarian leader, was captured by Army Delta Force Commandos and CIA operatives on Jan. 3.

This early-morning raid, known as Operation Absolute Resolve, was a part of Operation Southern Spear, an effort to counter terrorism, specifically narco-terrorism in the Western Hemisphere.

The Trump administration stated it had been monitoring Maduro as tensions between Washington and Caracas intensified in recent months. After enough evidence was gathered, the large-scale strike began, ending with the capture of  Maduro and his wife.

After the operation, Venezuelan officials said the death toll reached at least 80, including soldiers and civilians. Cuban authoritarian leader Miguel Diaz-Canel said that 32 of those killed were members of Cuba’s military or interior ministry, a reflection of the country’s relationship with Venezuela. 

Maduro pleaded not guilty to narco-trafficking charges and stated that he had been “kidnapped” and was “still the president” of his country. 

Maduro ruled as a dictator after coming to power in 2013, tightening his grip through political repression, media control, and rigged elections, including the presidential election in 2024. Edmundo González Urrutia won that presidential race, but the regime blocked his inauguration, and numerous nations, including the U.S., rejected Maduro’s victory claim.

While Maduro’s removal is a huge step for Venezuela, new questions have emerged. Who will fill in for Venezuela’s leadership position now? Maduro’s vice president, Delcy Rodríguez, has been sworn in to temporarily replace him while the country determines how to adhere to the constitutional requirement to hold an election within thirty days. 

Maduro’s allies on the supreme court argue that his absence should be considered temporary, and, if so, according to a different constitutional provision, Rodríguez could stay in power for up to ninety days, with the possibility of extending the period to six months.

While in office, Rodríguez, in what she described as “a new political movement,” has vowed to continue releasing prisoners who were detained unjustly at the time of Maduro’s leadership. However, as of mid-January, “…about 800 political prisoners are still being detained. That figure includes political leaders, soldiers, lawyers, and members of civil society.”

In addition, Rodríguez has condemned groups that campaign for prisoners’ rights, promising firm enforcement of the law and noting that Maduro had already initiated releases. These statements point to a continuity in leadership rather than a departure from Maduro’s regime. 

Another question is what the extent of U.S. involvement in Venezuela will be. Just days after Maduro’s capture, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio appeared to soften President Trump’s initial claim that America would effectively take charge of the country. Rubio emphasized that Washington intends to leverage control over Venezuela’s oil sector to pressure political reforms. 

There is also the question of Venezuela’s opposition leader María Corina Machado. Machado has insisted that Rodríguez is an unfit replacement and condemned her as “one of the main architects of torture, persecution, corruption, [and] narco-trafficking” in the country, and “certainly not an individual that can be trusted by international investors.” However, it is not clear when elections for a new leader will be held, and Machado continues to live in exile. 

Ultimately, Maduro’s arrest has not truly ended Venezuela’s crisis; it has merely shifted who holds power. With Rodríguez continuing the regime’s policies, courts bending the constitution, and elections uncertain, the promise of democracy remains unfulfilled. As international pressure mounts and opposition leaders find themselves still blocked from returning, Venezuela now stands at a crossroads between real political change and continued corruption.